Long Range Forecast: Can THUNDERBOLTS* Give the Marvel Cinematic Universe a Much-Needed Boost?

Subscribe to our FREE email newsletters to be notified of our latest updates in pre-release tracking, box office analysis, and industry news.

Long Range Forecast — May 2, 2025

Thunderbolts* | Disney / Marvel Studios

Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $65M – $85M

Following a quasi-rest year in which Marvel Studios released only one title theatrically—Deadpool & Wolverine ($211.4M domestic opening, $636.7M domestic total), now the highest-grossing R-rated movie of all time, domestically and globally—the MCU has gotten off to a rocky start in 2025, debuting Captain America: Brave New World to a modest $88.8M over the three-day President’s Day weekend (4-day domestic opening: $100M). In subsequent weeks, the title failed to pick up steam, grossing $188M domestically in the first five weeks in release—a period in which no other movie opened above $50M, meaning competition for chase week audiences has been all but non-existent.

Thunderbolts*, an anti-hero team-up film featuring familiar characters from Marvel Studios film and TV properties, will have more competition over its first month than Brave New World did, with Mission: Impossible – The Final Chapter, Lilo & Stitch, and Karate Kid all opening later in May. After its opening weekend, premium format real estate will be harder for Thunderbolts* to come by—as could ticket sales to more casual MCU fans who may want to catch up on the film in chase weeks should positive word-of-mouth develop. The lifting of review and reaction embargoes will give more insight as to the film’s potential performance in that regard.

Given Captain America: Brave New World‘s modest performance—and given the fact that Marvel’s ensemble movies have struggled since the 2019 release of Avengers: Endgame—Thunderbolts* opening weekend is not, at this point, likely to open over $100M, per our panel of forecasters. On the positive side: Thunderbolts*, unlike November 2021’s Eternals ($71.2M domestic opening, $164.9M domestic total), features an ensemble of characters for the most part already familiar to avid Marvel Studios audiences. On the negative side, many of those characters were villains/supporting players last seen either in movies several years old (Taskmasker and Alexei from 2021’s Black Widow; Ghost from 2018’s Ant-Man and the Wasp) or on one of Marvel Studios’ Disney+-exclusive shows (Yelena in Hawkeye; John Walker in The Falcon and the Winter Soldier), which could tamp down interest among the non-MCU-superfan contingent.

Should Thunderbolts* fail to deliver upon expectations, Disney/Marvel will have another shot at things prior to Avengers: Doomsday with the July release of Fantastic Four: First Steps, which represents something of a fresh start for the MCU as the debut (aside from a cameo for an alternate-universe Reed Richards in the Doctor Strange sequel) of their version of “Marvel’s First Family.”

MCU Theatrical Releases, Post-Avengers: Endgame

Tracking Updates [as of April 4]