A lot of the NBA scouts I chat with don’t spend too much time obsessing over lottery prospects. What they care about is the meat of the draft, those late first-round and second-round prospects that don’t grab headlines but end up being key contributors. Who has underrated upside? Who can play immediately? Who got lost in the shuffle? Here are six sleepers you’ll see in the Sweet 16 that could have long NBA futures:
For a two-round mock draft and a top 60 big board with full scouting reports, check out my NBA Draft Guide.
Fland was the 17th-ranked high school prospect before committing to Arkansas, and now he’s ranked in the second round by most analysts, including myself. He’s only 6-foot-2, missed multiple months due to thumb surgery and Arkansas wasn’t all that great this season in John Calipari’s first season as head coach.
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But now the Razorbacks find themselves in the Sweet 16 with Boogie back on the floor. Neither of Fland’s two games in his return from injury were all that productive as a scorer: He made just four of his 15 shots. But you also see the flashes:
Fland is a shifty shot-creator who can get into the teeth of the defense. Normally, he’s looking to pass. But Arkansas might need Fland to be the scorer that Calipari recruited him to be to have any chance of outsourcing Texas Tech, who ranked fifth in KenPom’s offensive rating. Fland is making 47.6% of his catch-and-shoot 3s as a freshman, and he can catch fire off the dribble. His ceiling as a bucket-getter is way higher than anyone else on the roster.
On the latest episode of my podcast, my former co-host Chris Vernon said Fland has become way too underrated. The Sweet 16 will be an opportunity to prove Verno right.
You will spot Tugler as soon as you turn on the Houston game. Just look for Inspector Gadget with the dreadlocks. The Cougars sophomore is 6-foot-8 with a 7-foot-4 wingspan, and blocks two shots in only 21.8 minutes per game.
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Tugler has a 89.8 defensive rating when he’s on the floor, best in the nation. When he’s off? It drops to 98.3, per CBB Analytics. Still elite, but still one of the biggest fall-offs in college basketball. He’s that special defensively the way he never stops flying around the court with his long limbs.
I would bet every dollar I own that the broadcast mentions that Saunders’ grandfather invented tater tots. It’s hilarious to me because normally those types of goofy stories are reserved for the bench guys who don’t contribute much. And on the surface, you might think that’s true of Saunders. He isn’t the greatest athlete, nor is he the tallest. And even his shot isn’t too pretty.
But man, his shot goes in a lot. Saunders had 41 points combined in BYU’s opening weekend games, draining shots from all over the floor both off the catch and off the dribble. He’s an absolute freaking baller who scores from everywhere, has feel for passing and brings hard-nosed defense. I love everything about him.
All eyes will of course be on Duke’s projected No. 1 pick Cooper Flagg, and their four other likely first-rounders in the starting lineup. And then there’s James, the fifth-year senior and fifth starter for the Blue Devils. He transferred from Tulane before this season and made 39.7% of his 3s, logged 3.1 assists per game and played stout defense. The high-end role player qualities he brings to Duke could someday bepe of great value to an NBA team.
5. Koby Brea, Kentucky super senior guard (unranked)
Brea is an elite movement shooter with a lightning-quick release who thrives in off-ball actions and relocations. While limited athletically and as a creator, his shooting gravity alone gives him a pathway to an NBA role.
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He’s older as a fifth-year senior that transferred from Dayton. But he plays an important role for the Wildcats and he’s playing heavier minutes than he has all season. He logged 36 points over two games, dropping 23 in Kentucky’s win over Illinois. More big games will fly him up draft boards despite his age.
In 60 minutes of the opening weekend, Pettiford logged 39 points, 11 rebounds, and eight assists. He made step-back 3s, midrange pull-ups over 7-foot-2 center Ryan Kalkbrenner, and floaters with both his dominant left hand and his off-hand (Mike Conley style). Pettiford straight-up looked like Auburn’s best and most important player, which he has in many games this season.
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I have him ranked as a lottery pick on my board. By comparison, Draft Express ranks him 62nd. There’s a chance he goes back to school, which is why DX has him ranked so low. But if Auburn beats Michigan on Friday, and then possibly wins again on Sunday, you’d think Pettiford will be one of the massive reasons why and raise his draft stock in the process.
For a two-round mock draft and a top 60 big board with full scouting reports, check out my NBA Draft Guide.
